Baseball betting can seem daunting to newcomers, but understanding the basics can turn it into a rewarding experience. Whether you’re a seasoned sports bettor or new to the scene, the unique aspects of baseball offer fresh opportunities. For those interested in exploring this avenue, finding the best MLB sportsbooks can provide a significant advantage. Let’s delve into the key features and nuances you should consider before placing your bets.
Why even bet on baseball when there are enough other, more popular, and understandable disciplines? Three reasons at once:
- Baseball championships take place mostly in the summer when most other team sports are on hiatus. In other words, it’s a decent alternative to football and hockey.
- Baseball, if you don’t count MLB, is an outright small market, which means that there are plenty of betting mistakes in this discipline that can be turned in your favor.
- In baseball, there can be no draw, which makes prediction easier, and also allows you to apply various strategies.
The disadvantages are a weak lineup (for the majority of championships it is limited to outcomes and the total), low limits (compared to the same football), and a margin of 7%, which is classic for small markets.
How to Choose Your Bet
If you want to play in the distance, you should keep in mind that the MLB regular season is not a sprint, but a marathon. There is no rush: each team plays 6-7 games per week. This allows you to focus on options that a player is really confident in. If you have a positive strategy in hand, even with a minimum ROI (around 2%) you can get a decent profit due to the number of games.
Keep an eye on the weather forecast. As matches are played in outdoor stadiums, the weather is an important factor. Most often you’ll have to keep an eye on wind gusts, which have a bigger impact on the total. According to Bet Labs archived data, if the wind in the stadium area was howling at 8km/h or higher, the under-par total was played 55.1% of the time. That’s a 6.4% ROI for blind betting on the under in that wind.
In addition, it is worth considering the direction of the wind. This often determines the fate of the batted ball – either a home run or foul territory and out.
Keep your eyes on the umpires. An umpire in baseball is an unquestioned authority. Because the game is extremely conservative, VAR and its analogs are not favored, and umpires (or umpires) determine the strike zone by eye.
Some referees have tighter rectangle boundaries, which leads to more strokes and therefore more wounds. Some have a slightly larger strike zone from the start, which means more defensive strikeouts, which plays into TM’s hands. This is the case of Ron Kulpa, whose matches under his watch saw the bottom go down 57.2% of the time – that’s a 10% ROI. Also, the umpires determine whether the bat has carried the bat. Roughly speaking, whether the batter moved the bat while trying to field the ball. This can determine the fate of an innings at a key moment in the game.
What Else to Watch Out For
Avoid the big overvalued favourites. Big names like the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, and Los Angeles Dodgers are on everyone’s radar, so the odds are low and often drop in pre-match. This is especially true for home games. The lion’s share of players will load up on promoted Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw regardless of whether the odds are 1.20 or 1.50.
Meanwhile, since 2005, favorites with odds of 1.66 or lower have won the regular season around 63% of the time. At first glance, this is impressive. However, since you have to bet at low odds, the bottom line will be a fat minus (-310.77 flat).
This game is not worth the candle.
Focus on the underdogs in matchups between division rivals. There are plenty of series on the MLB calendar where teams are battling within a division. More often than not, these are the most important matchups in the league. Scouts have a thorough understanding of pitchers‘ throwing patterns and batters’ habits, so the odds of an underdog winning are higher. Especially with high totals and when the dog plays away.
